Microsoft Warns that Russian Meddling in US Elections Likely Already Started
In late April 2024, Microsoft reported that Russian online efforts to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election have begun within the last 45 days, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous election cycles.
According to researchers at Microsoft, Russia-linked accounts are sharing divisive content targeted at U.S. audiences, which includes criticism of American support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
Russian Embassy Witholds Any Comments on the Subject
The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment on this matter. However, the Kremlin previously stated that it would not interfere in the November U.S. election and dismissed U.S. accusations of orchestrating campaigns during the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Although the recent Russian activity observed by Microsoft is not as widespread as during previous election periods, researchers anticipate that it may intensify in the coming months.
Microsoft noted that discussions related to Ukraine have gained momentum over the past two months, with approximately 70 Russia-linked activity sets engaging in both covert and overt campaigns through traditional media and social media.
The most active of these Russian campaigns is reportedly associated with Russia's Presidential Administration. Another campaign involves disseminating disinformation online in multiple languages, often initiated by apparent whistleblowers or citizen journalists on video channels. This content is then amplified by a network of websites, including DC Weekly, Miami Chronical, and The Intel Drop.
Microsoft expressed concern that U.S. audiences may unknowingly perpetuate this disinformation after it circulates online for days or weeks without knowledge of its original source.
Microsoft Warns of Uptick in Cold River Activity
Furthermore, Microsoft highlighted an increase in hacking activities by a Russian group identified as Star Blizzard or Cold River, which has been targeting western think tanks. This group's current focus on U.S. political figures and policy circles suggests potential future hacking campaigns intended to influence the November election.
While concerns about the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) by foreign adversaries targeting the U.S. election have been raised, Microsoft's research found that simpler digital manipulations were more common than deepfakes. Audio manipulations were found to have a more significant impact than video alterations.
According to Microsoft's researchers, basic manipulations, rather than complex AI applications, are likely to have the greatest impact on social media and audience perception. Nation-states' use of generative AI-enabled content has generally not achieved widespread reach across social media, and instances of genuine audience deception from such content are rare.
